Trump or Biden? Why Crypto Could Decide the Next US President

By Tor Constantino

With 144 days left until the November 5 election to decide the next president of the United States, the most recent data from the polling prognosticators over at ABC News' 538 report a statistical dead heat.

However, their new electoral college modeling predicts that Democratic incumbent Joe Biden wins 53 out of 100 simulations, while presumptive Republican challenger Donald Trump wins the remaining 47 computerized scenarios—results that are well within the margin of error.

With both party bases well galvanized and the margins so tight, it will likely come down to small issues that tip the balance one way or the other. The upcoming debate between the two candidates on June 27 could be a pivotal factor if one of them happens to have a particularly good or bad performance. A key issue for those of us in the crypto community to watch is... well, crypto.

A recent Harris Interactive poll, sponsored by Grayscale, suggests that in 2024 neither political party can afford to ignore the importance of cryptocurrency policy and Bitcoin itself—because voters now care about it.

Possible reasons voters care include the fact that 11 exchange-traded funds were approved by the SEC in January, making it easier for people with pensions, 401(k) plans, and other institutional investments to get a stake in Bitcoin. That preceded Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high price of $73,797 in March, gaining more attention after wicking below $16,000 per coin in November 2022.

Those factors set the context for some key findings from the Harris survey:

• Trump recently positioned himself as the crypto candidate at a Silicon Valley fundraiser. The Harris Poll data finds that crypto is a bipartisan topic, with similar ownership rates among Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%). Given how close the 538 polling data appears, if either candidate can pull votes from the other party based on that single issue of crypto, that could be enough.
• Bitcoin’s relevance is increasing due to macro dynamics and its own maturity, and nearly half of voters (47%) now expect some of their investment portfolio to include crypto (up from 40% late last year).
• As in Phase 1 of polling this year, respondents ranked inflation as the top issue in the election (28%), again underscoring the potential value and importance of inflation-hedge assets like Bitcoin to voters based on BTC's hard-capped supply.

Additionally, a separate study from Security.io earlier this year found that as many as 40% of Americans actually own some form of cryptocurrency. That equates to 93 million individuals across party lines united around a singular, technological asset class. That has never been the case heading into a presidential election.

Also, President Biden’s ill-advised veto of a common sense, bipartisan bill to repeal the SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) No. 121 could have severe political penalties for him at the polls. That’s because SAB 121 makes it more difficult and expensive for banks and institutions to custody crypto for individuals, as well as stifles other innovation regarding digital assets.

The timing of that decision could not have been worse so close to the election, especially given the fact that voters are not happy with “Biden-omics.” A recent study from the Brookings Institute found that 65% of voters rated the economy as good during Trump’s presidency, compared to 38% under Biden, and only 18% of young adults believe that they are better off financially today than they were a year ago.

That last factoid is important because the Harris poll found that 62% of Gen Z and Millennial voters believe crypto and blockchain technology are the future of finance. If these numbers hold during the next 120 days, then the White House could be orange-pilled by the Orange Man with a Trump return to the Oval Office.

Edited by Andrew Hayward

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