By Tyler Warner
4 min read
Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.
GM!
Today’s top news:
It appears the Trump and Xi posturing has subsided and a trade deal is near.
And markets like it.
The U.S. and China reportedly reached “substantial progress” toward a new trade framework, with negotiators signaling a potential tariff rollback in phases.
Sources close to the talks said both sides are working toward a target signing window in November.
That was enough to send risk assets flying.
Overall the total crypto market cap added ~$150B over the weekend.
Not only that, treasuries sold off and gold cooled, signaling a rotation out of safety into risk and growth assets, with crypto outperforming stocks (so far).
“Markets were pricing in escalation—not de-escalation. Any sign of trade cooling is bullish for risk assets.” - CrossBorder Capital
“Bitcoin continues to behave like high-beta macro exposure—when global liquidity improves, BTC responds.” - QCP Capital Desk Note
“The U.S.–China thaw comes at a moment when crypto liquidity is already improving—this could be the setup for a fourth-quarter squeeze.” - Matrixport Research
Any trade deal progress is bullish for risk assets, and crypto falls squarely into that category.
If this trade framework sticks and tariffs roll back in phases, we could see:
✅ Renewed flows into risk assets
✅ Macro funds increase crypto allocation
✅ A powerful setup heading into end-of-year positioning
And if the deal momentum holds, this may be the beginning of Q4 risk-on, not the end of it.
Cue the Santa Claus rally, a bit early.
Now we still have some “4 year cycle” sellers to work through. And it’s hard to think we’re totally out of the woods just yet.
But eventually they will run out of coins to sell.
And the bulls will take back over.
A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:
Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:
Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:
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