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Galaxy told its clients on Wednesday that it is slashing its end-of-year target for Bitcoin, from $185,000 to $120,000. It comes after BTC dropped below $100,000 for the first time in six months on Tuesday, as more than $2 billion worth of liquidations swept the market.
The institutional crypto firm’s note said that Bitcoin has entered a new phase, which Galaxy calls the “maturity era.” During this phase, it explained, “institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility will dominate.” For that reason, future gains may come at a slower rate, meaning that it predicts that Bitcoin will only near its previous all-time highs by the end of the year.
Bitcoin recently traded hands for $103,923, up around 3% on the day following Tuesday's markets mess—but still down almost 18% from its all-time high of $126,080 set just last month, according to data from CoinGecko.
Galaxy further said that the dynamics of the market have shifted against Bitcoin’s favor.
First, the record $19 billion liquidation cascade that took place on October 10, following President Trump's threat of massive tariffs against China, has put a dent in investor confidence as well as market liquidity, the note said.
Equally, other assets have started to challenge Bitcoin’s attractiveness as an investment with the rise of gold, AI-related stocks, and more. Plus, Galaxy said, stablecoins have become a hot topic within crypto, which has also diverted attention from Bitcoin.
On the policy front, when Trump returned to office in January, it appeared that a Bitcoin strategic reserve was set to be at the forefront of discussion. However, after signing an executive order to establish a strategic reserve, there have been no Bitcoin purchases and the government has been “very quiet” about the venture in general, the note said.
Galaxy also believes that retail buyers haven’t really cared about crypto since 2021, calling them “apathetic” to Bitcoin. The firm said that during last year’s meme coin mania, some attention came back to the industry, but it hasn’t translated to long-term belief in Bitcoin.
As a result, Bitcoin treasury companies will also enter a second phase, the note explained. Previously, a company’s stock would pump alongside Bitcoin. But with that looking unlikely as Bitcoin price momentum cools off, according to Galaxy, the firms will need to find a way to generate revenue.
Predictors on Myriad believe it to be 64% likely that Bitcoin will hit $115,000 sooner than it hits $85,000. (Disclosure: Myriad is developed by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)
Similarly, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy and the author of the note, wrote on X that he is still bullish on Bitcoin over the long term. It just might take the orange coin longer than expected to get there.
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