Morning Minute: Markets Tumble as Iran War Escalates

By Tyler Warner

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes or less, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors fall as Iran War escalates and inflation comes in hot; BTC -4% at $70k
• TradeXYZ secures license from Dow Jones for S&P 500 index; HYPE briefly soars
• Congressmen say Clarity Act has to pass by mid-May or won’t get done
• Kraken delays IPO plans while Citi downgrades Gemini to sell
• $2.2B in FTX payouts to come March 31

🏛️ Powell Holds, Bitcoin Folds

The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% as expected Wednesday, but the damage came before the decision even dropped.

February PPI printed at +0.7% month-over-month versus 0.3% expected, the hottest reading in months.

A big chunk of that is oil, and unfortunately, the oil woes do not seem to be behind us given even more escalations in the Iran War in the past day including strikes on multiple oil and gas facilities.

As for Powell’s commentary, he was no doomer by any means. He took the hard line stance that inflation needs to come down before any more rate cuts can resume. But he dismissed any mentions of stagflation, stating that the U.S. economy is far from facing stagflation, and commented positively about the economy overall.

Despite a neutral Powell, Bitcoin fell from $74K to ~$70,000 overnight, gold fell 5% to $4,700 and the Nasdaq finished down 1.5%.

Key Details

• Feb PPI: +0.7% MoM vs. 0.3% expected
• Powell raised 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%; dot plot unchanged at one cut
• Bitcoin fell ~5% on the session; Nasdaq -1.5%

📈 Hyperliquid Brings the S&P 500 Onchain

S&P 500 perpetual futures are now live on Hyperliquid, and this one is official. Trade[XYZ] secured a licensing agreement with S&P Dow Jones Indices to list the contracts, settling in USDC and trading 24/7.

That means the S&P 500 index will be tradeable with leverage on Hyperliquid, perhaps as high as 20x+.

It follows Hyperliquid’s earlier expansion into gold, oil, and equity-linked perps (HIP-3), which now represent 5.5% of total platform volume at around $215M on Sunday. The HIP-3 open interest is nearing $1.5B, up ~6x since December 2025.

The HYPE token briefly soared on the news, reaching a new local high over $43 before settling closer to $41 amidst the broader crypto selloff.

Key Details

• S&P 500 perps now live on Hyperliquid via licensed Trade[XYZ] contracts, settled in USDC
• Index and ETF perps = 5.5% of Hyperliquid volume; gold, oil, and equity perps drove $991M in 24-hour volume during the Iran attack
• Hyperliquid launched a $29M Policy Center in February to engage DC directly

🏛️ Clarity Act Has an Actual Deadline Now

After months of missed markups and a January blowup over stablecoin yield, the Clarity Act has a real calendar.

Lummis told the DC Blockchain Summit Wednesday that the Senate Banking Committee will hold a rescheduled markup in “the second half of April.” Sen. Moreno sharpened the stakes: “If we don’t get the Clarity Act passed by May, digital asset legislation will not pass for the foreseeable future.”

Congress goes home for Memorial Day recess May 21 and thus that is the actual cliff.

Senate Banking chair Tim Scott said Tuesday he expects compromise language on the stablecoin yield dispute this week; Lummis added that anything sounding like “banking product terminology” is off the table.

Sen. Gillibrand is still holding out for an ethics provision barring members of Congress and senior administration officials, “including the president and the vice president,” from issuing or promoting crypto while in office - likely a key sticking point.

Key Details

• Senate Banking Committee markup targeted for second half of April; must clear Senate floor by May 21 recess
• Stablecoin yield dispute appears near resolution; ethics language (targeting Trump family crypto ties) remains the open fight
• Polymarket gives the bill a ~62% chance of being signed into law in 2026

🦑 Kraken Puts Its IPO on Ice

Kraken has frozen its multibillion-dollar IPO plans, CoinDesk reported Wednesday.

The exchange confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC in November, just after closing an $800M raise at a $20B valuation backed by Citadel Securities, Jane Street, and Tribe Capital.

But now they are waiting for market conditions to improve before proceeding.

For some IPO context: BitGo is the only crypto firm to list in 2026 so far and is down 44% from its IPO price. And Citi just downgraded Gemini from neutral to sell, as the GEMI stock is down 80% from IPO.

Securitize says it still plans to go public in Q2, but Kraken’s delay signals that even the biggest players are reading the room.

Key Details

• Kraken paused IPO after confidential S-1 filing in November; raised $800M at $20B valuation with Citadel Securities
• Only 2026 crypto IPO so far: BitGo, down 44% from listing price
• Kraken-linked SPAC KRAKacquisition already trading on Nasdaq as KRAQU

💸 FTX Pays Out Again with $2.2B on March 31

The FTX Recovery Trust will distribute another $2.2B to creditors on March 31, the fourth payout under the exchange’s Chapter 11 reorganization plan.

Funds will flow through BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer, with distributions expected to hit accounts within one to three business days.

For those who have forgotten, the recovery payouts are at November 2022 asset prices, which means creditors who held Bitcoin at collapse (~$20K) are receiving dollar-equivalent recoveries, not coins, at a fraction of what BTC is worth today.

But at least they’re getting a better entry on any crypto rebuys than they were in 2025.

Key Details

• $2.2B distribution set for March 31; paid via BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer within 1-3 business days
• Fourth payout under the Chapter 11 plan; total creditor claims could exceed $16B when complete
• Payouts calculated at November 2022 valuations means Bitcoin holders receiving ~$20K/coin equivalent, not current market price

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are very red ahead amidst the war escalation and inflation concerns; BTC -4% at $69.7k; ETH -5% at $2,160; SOL -3% at $89
• HASH (+22%), RIVER (+12%), and QUANT (+8%) led top movers
• Oil spiked to $98 after multiple energy infrastructure targets hit; GOLD -6% at $4,696
• PPI came in at 3.4% and above expectations
• The SEC approved Nasdaq’s rule change allowing tokenized securities to trade on the exchange through the DTC pilot program, with the change taking effect for the duration of that pilot
• Algorand Foundation cut 25% of staff amid crypto-market weakness and broader macro uncertainty, while saying it remains focused on network growth
• Tempo Network mainnet launched as a payments-focused layer-1 backed by Stripe and Paradigm, with a new Machine Payments Protocol built for AI agents to transact beyond the limits of existing payment rails
• Citi downgraded Gemini from Neutral to Sell, saying profitability is still years away; it cut the stock price target from $13 to $5.50, and GEMI fell more than 16% on the day

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $163.5M in net outflows on Wednesday, breaking a 7-day inflow streak; the ETH ETFs had $55M in outflows

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme majors were very red; DOGE -3%, SHIB -3%, PEPE -4%, TRUMP -5%, PENGU -7%, SPX -7%, FARTCOIN -6%
• Aliens (+400%), TripleT (+40%) and Lobstar (+35%) led top onchain movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• Zcash’s hashrate hit a new ATH this week in sign of growing adoption
• Venice AI announced end-to-end encryption for customer conversations
• Rekt Drinks’ Birb collab sold out in less than 1 hour
• Polymarket shared a new IRL bar in Washington DC for “monitoring the situation”

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were mostly flat; Punks even at 29 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 4.2 ETH, BAYC +1% at 5.2 ETH; Hypurr’s +4% at 448 HYPE
• Chromie Squiggles (+5%) led notable movers

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