4 min read
Red September might finally be dead. Bitcoin is up 7.33% this month, which would be the best September in the Coinglass price tracker's history if nothing weird happens between today and tomorrow.
The margin is razor-thin. September 2024 returned 7.29%, so the record hangs in almost a tie with one day left.
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Bitcoin closed September in the red in eight of the 13 years from 2013 through 2025, including six in a row from 2017 to 2022. Even after this year's gain, September's average return is negative 2.34%, the worst of any month, per data from CoinGlass.
But the tide has been turning. Bitcoin finished September up 3.91% in 2023, 7.29% in 2024 and 5.16% in 2025. This year would make it four in a row, the month’s longest green streak in the data.
Bitcoin monthly returns. Image: CoinGlass
The “Red September” curse, if we can still call it that at this point, is not unique to crypto. The S&P 500 has also averaged a loss in September since 1945 with different factors from vacations to tax loss harvesting tactics explaining this behavior.
Bitcoin opened the month around $78,500 after spiking 25% in August. Then mid-month arrived. On Sept. 15, the Senate's Clarity Act failed a cloture vote, 49 to 50, and spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $450.4 million, their worst day since June.
A day later, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023. Risk assets like crypto and stocks are sensitive to interest rate movements, as the cost of “cheap money” for riskier bets fluctuates, and Bitcoin dipped to around $75,000 following the rate hike.
So, Bitcoin pushed the breaks and even registered a small correction, appearing as if September would be red once again.
Then it flipped. ETFs pulled in about $2.98 billion over seven straight sessions, including nearly $1 billion on Sept. 21, their best day since October 2025. Shorts got squeezed, with more than $800 million liquidated in 24 hours, and Bitcoin ran to $87,354, its highest level since late January.
Bitcoin has since given back about 4% of that move. On Monday, it slipped to $83,000 as Brent crude climbed back above $100 after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview
On the daily chart, the pullback has been shallow. Fibonacci retracement levels, which mark how much of a previous move a pullback has given back, put the natural supports and resistances in the zone between 74,978 and 87,354.
Trend indicators still lean bullish. The Average Directional Index, which measures trend strength on a scale of 0 to 100 without saying which way it points, reads 42.3, well above the 25 threshold that traders use to confirm a strong trend. The Relative Strength Index, a momentum gauge from 0 to 100 where readings above 70 flag overbought conditions, sits at 61.2. The 50-day moving average is also above the 200-day, a classic bullish pattern known as a golden cross.
Lose $82,626 and the next support is the $81,166 to $79,705 zone, which corresponds to the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels.
A green September doesn't fix 2026 entirely for investors. Bitcoin is still about 4.4% below the roughly $87,497 it traded at when the year began.
Last year's green September was followed by a red October, down 3.69%, and a 23% fourth-quarter drop. This year, the Fed's next meetings are Oct. 27-28 and Dec. 8-9.
To keep the September record, Bitcoin needs to close the month above roughly $83,600. October's average return in the same table is 19.92%, but don’t bet your house on that performance this year.
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