By Stacy Jones
3 min read
Crypto exchange and custodian Gemini's stock dropped more than 16% after Citigroup analysts downgraded the company Wednesday morning, suggesting that it'll be years before the firm is profitable.
The company, which trades on the Nasdaq under the GEMI symbol, saw its rating fall from Neutral to Sell, and Citi lowered its price target from $13 to $5.50, according to a note published Wednesday morning. At the time of writing, GEMI was changing hands for $5.95 per share after having dropped more than 16% since markets opened.
Gemini was founded in 2014 by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss and went live the following year. The firm was initially focused on Bitcoin trading, before it expanded to offer a broader suite of crypto products and services. Now the platform caters to both retail and institutional clients with its spot trading, derivatives, staking, institutional-grade custody, an over-the-counter desk, a stablecoin, and a crypto rewards credit card.
The company went public on the Nasdaq Global Select Market last September, pricing its IPO at $28 per share and raising $425 million—valuing Gemini at roughly $3.3 billion. Capital.com The Winklevoss twins had considered going public as early as 2021, around the time of Coinbase's debut, but delayed those plans amid the 2022–23 crypto downturn and regulatory uncertainty.
Wednesday's Citi downgrade puts the stock well below that offering price.
The company is scheduled to release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 report on Thursday, followed by a conference call to discuss the results before the bell on Friday.
The company has been taking steps to cut costs. In early February, the firm said it had approved a plan to exit and wind down operations in the U.K., European Union, and other European jurisdictions, and Australia, "as part of a broader initiative to reduce operating expenses and support the company's path to profitability."
The wind down gave users in those regions two months to withdraw funds before their accounts are forced to close on April 6. At the same time, Gemini slashed its head count by 25% and said it would lean more on AI to drive efficiency gains.
"We expect this will help reduce our total expenses in line with our headcount reduction and meaningfully accelerate our path to profitability even in the backdrop of the current crypto market," the Winklevoss twins wrote in a joint blog post at the time. "Simplify, consolidate, then accelerate. Onward!"
Citi also lowered its price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum earlier this week, adjusting its 12-month forecast for BTC from $143,000 to $112,000 and for ETH from $4,304 to $3,175.
Bitcoin was recently trading for about $71,250 with Ethereum priced at $2,175. Both were down Wednesday following worse-than-expected U.S. inflation data and growing investor concerns over the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Citi strategist Alex Saunders wrote that while previously regulatory developments helped foster greater adoption and inflows, the opportunity for significant U.S. legislative action this year is diminishing.
The upcoming midterm elections in November could complicate the legislative landscape for crypto-focused regulation.
The odds for the crypto market structure bill, or CLARITY Act, could shift dramatically if Democrats gain additional seats in Congress. The bill can't advance without support from at least seven Senate Democrats.
Despite the falling price and bearish perspective from analysts, users on Myriad—a prediction market platform operated by Decrypt's parent company, Dastan—remained slightly bullish on Bitcoin's near-term prospects, penciling in a nearly 55% chance that the coin's next stop will be rising to $84,000 rather than falling to $55,000.
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