Entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes on Thursday disclosed a 25% success rate in his market predictions, rating himself as only getting 2 out of 8 calls correct over the past year. But the kicker, he wrote in his new essay, is that he’s remained profitable by leveraging macroeconomic trends in the long term.
"So the Batting Average = .250. That's pretty shit to the common man," Hayes admitted in a blog, using a baseball analogy to describe his prediction accuracy. The crypto expert's self-reported scorecard covers major market calls from November 2023 to September 2024, spanning predictions about Treasury bill issuance, banking crises, cryptocurrency price movements, and central bank policies.
While acknowledging his struggles with short-term forecasts, Hayes reaffirmed his conviction in what he calls the "volatility supercycle" thesis, which underpins his long-term market outlook.
Just last week, Maelstrom Fund, the Hayes-led crypto investment fund, significantly reduced its holdings in the DeFi altcoin Pendle (PENDLE).
The fund sold 1.59 million PENDLE tokens for a total of $5.62 million, at an average price of $3.52, over a span of two days. This sale appears to have led to a loss of $1.29 million, according to data from Spotonchain.
Hayes, who famously writes on market volatility and central bank policies, said he stands by his core thesis: Governments will continue to print money to suppress volatility, inevitably driving up the value of Bitcoin.
Despite his misses, including an incorrect call about the Bank Term Funding Program’s expiry impact in March 2024, Hayes argues that short-term forecasts matter less than being positioned for the inevitable monetary expansion.
"The fiat required to keep volatility at suppressed levels will find its way into crypto," he contends, reiterating his commitment to Bitcoin (BTC) as the ultimate hedge against traditional financial systems.
Hayes predicts that going forward, major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and People's Bank of China, will continue easing monetary conditions. He advises crypto investors to "sit back, relax, and watch the fiat value of your portfolio pump.”
Edited by Stacy Elliott.