Myriad Moves: Traders Turn Bullish on Bitcoin, Polymarket Token Odds Surge

Predictors in search of volatility have plenty of options to choose from on Myriad Markets this week.

Swift spikes in probabilities this week for token launches, crypto prices, and the Major League Baseball playoffs have created ample opportunity for predictors to trade their knowledge in either direction, with hundreds of thousands of dollars in trading volume racking up during that time.

Here’s a deeper look into some of the most-traded markets on Myriad this week. 

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)

Bitcoin’s next hit: Moon to $140K or dip to $110?

Market Open: October 6
Market Close: Open to resolution
Volume: $14.8K
Link: See the latest odds on the "Bitcoin's next hit: Moon to $140K or dip to $110K" market on Myriad

After rotating from bullish to bearish and then back to bullish, optimistic predictors got a resolution in the Bitcoin’s next hit market—$125,000 or $105,000 edition. 

The top crypto asset surged to a new all-time high above $126,000, leading to new targets for predictors to speculate on via a fresh market—a moon to $140,000 or a dip to $110,000. 

As of Thursday afternoon, predictors are leaning bullish, giving the “$140,000” outcome a 54% likelihood of happening as BTC trades at $121,260. Predictions were around even on Tuesday, but have jumped to favor the moon side in recent days.

At least some analysts seem to agree with predictors, indicating that Bitcoin has room to run as “Uptober” gets further underway. According to a weekly report from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin profit-taking is around 50% less than July levels, and realized profit margins for long-term holders are below their typical market exhaustion levels. 

BTC has faded around 3.7% from its Monday high and now sits around 15.7% away from $140,000. Conversely, it’s only a 9% drop to the $110,000 market number, but predictors don’t seem to care. 

What’s next? October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest performing months, but we’ll see if the buzz lasts ‘til November rolls around.

Will Polymarket announce a token this year?

Market Open: August 6
Market Close: December 31
Volume: $93.7K
Link: See the latest odds on the "Will Polymarket announce a token this year?" market on Myriad

A stagnant market about a potential Polymarket token got a drastic probability shift on Wednesday when the prediction market’s founder posted “POLY” alongside other crypto tickers used to represent their respective tokens.

The post sent an immediate shockwave to the Myriad market, which asks predictors whether or not the firm will announce plans for a token before the year end. Predictors priced the probability of that announcement at around 16% prior to the post, though it jumped as high as 46% in favor of a token announcement in the hours that followed.

Polymarket has been littering headlines this week, thanks to a $2 billion fundraise that values the firm around $9 billion. Based on that raise, a Bloomberg report indicated that its founder, Shayne Coplan, is the youngest self-made billionaire.

Coplan’s tease, intended or not, doesn’t mean a token or announcement of one is necessarily imminent. And some of the shine has worn off from the CEO’s post on X, with odds of a token announcement dropping to 40% on Myriad after briefly flipping green overnight.

The market should be opening its doors to U.S. residents soon, four years after it was banned by the CFTC. Some users have speculated that the firm will give U.S. users an opportunity to “farm” its hypothetical token prior to official announcement and launch, but there’s nothing official yet. 

What’s next? Polymarket’s U.S. launch is apparently imminent. 

Seattle Mariners versus Detroit Tigers: Who wins?

Market Open: October 7
Market Close: October 11
Volume: $171K
Link: See the latest odds on the "Mariners versus Tigers: Who Wins?" market on Myriad

America’s favorite pastime has provided Myriad with one of its most popular and volatile prediction markets in the last week. 

The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers are squaring off in the second round of the Major League Baseball playoffs and are now tied at 2-2 in the American League Division Series (ALDS). 

The best-of-five series has seen alternating victories through the first four games as teams fight to be the first with three total wins. That alternating cadence has led to a major swing in the prediction market, which asks users who will advance. 

Shortly after the market opened, predictors priced the market around 60% in favor of Seattle, who took a 2-1 lead in the series after a victory on Tuesday. 

As Wednesday’s game got underway, a quick 3-0 lead for the Mariners jumped the probability of their victory as high as 87%, giving the Tigers just a 13% chance of escaping the series and advancing. If Seattle won the game, then the series would have concluded and the Mariners would have advanced.

But a strong Tigers rally quickly eliminated that thought, ultimately leading to a Tigers victory which completely flipped the odds in favor of the Detroit side.

By 6:00p.m. ET, just two hours after the Mariners peaked at 87% to advance, the Tigers had risen to 46%—a 33% jump in just a few hours.

Since that time, predictors have steamed the line further in that direction, now giving a slight edge to the Tigers at 55%. Traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings actually list implied probabilities for the Tigers even higher around 59%, as the team will trot out its best starting pitcher, Tarik Skubal, on Friday.

What’s next? The teams will play a deciding game five on Friday in Seattle.