In brief
- The average size of Bitcoin deposits to Binance has jumped 34x since early 2024, hitting 21.7 BTC, signaling a major return of large-holder activity.
- Analysts link the rally to a potential "regime shift" from macro events like the U.S. strikes on Venezuela, but warn it's a recalibration, not an unbounded bull run.
- The consensus outlook is for a volatile, range-bound Q1 2026, with over $3B in sidelined stablecoin capital and equity market risks acting as near-term headwinds.
Bitcoin's decisive breakout above $92,000 to start 2026 has been accompanied by a surge in activity from large holders, signaling a shift in market participation even as analysts project a volatile but range-bound quarter ahead.
The top crypto is up 6.3% over the week and 1.7% in the past day, according to CoinGecko data. Roughly $255 million in leveraged positions have been liquidated as a result of Bitcoin’s sustained uptrend, per CoinGlass data, suggesting increased speculative activity.
Bitcoin's rally follows a range-bound December and aligns with a notable change in exchange flow patterns. The average size of Bitcoin deposits to Binance has surged to 21.7 BTC per transaction in December 2025, a 34x increase from the 0.86 BTC average in early January 2024, according to data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
“The sharp increase in average Bitcoin inflows to Binance suggests that larger holders are becoming more active again, which is typically an early signal of renewed speculation rather than retail-driven noise,” Wenny Cai, COO of SynFutures, told Decrypt.
Geopolitical turmoil spurs speculation
This renewed speculation comes amid a significant macro event involving a U.S. military operation that captured Venezuela’s President, Nicolás Maduro. This event has injected a "strategic frame" into the market, according to Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital’s Monday note.
The analysts highlighted chatter around potential Venezuelan Bitcoin reserves and a resulting disinflationary impulse from lower oil prices as factors aligning crypto with broader risk assets, suggesting a potential "regime shift."
Other analysts urge caution, viewing the geopolitical development as a source of uncertainty.
“Whilst the Venezuela incident does not have a direct impact on crypto prices, it renders the geopolitical situation a little more shaky,” Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan, told Decrypt. He warned that ripple effects from the move “may trigger fear events that will impact markets.”
Still, the consensus outlook for early 2026 remains measured, with analysts viewing the current move as a recalibration rather than the start of an unbounded rally, with major catalysts still on the horizon.
“What we’re seeing looks more like a recalibration after weeks of muted positioning, where traders are testing the upside rather than committing aggressively,” Cai said. She expects Bitcoin to “remain range-bound but volatile” in Q1, with direction depending on ETF re-engagement and institutional strategies.
On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders place a 77% chance on Bitcoin's next move taking it to $100,000 rather than $69,000.
Lim echoed this range-bound view, noting that key “liquidity catalysts take time to properly play out.” Two factors could limit the rally's momentum, he said: more than $3 billion in stablecoin capital remains on the sidelines, and equities—which are "priced to perfection"—risk a correction that would pressure crypto.
Despite the caution, the re-engagement of large holders after a period of accumulation marks a change in market dynamics. “Long-term Bitcoin holders are becoming net buyers for the first time in months,” Lim noted, suggesting a firmer foundation for prices even within a defined trading range.