In brief
- Pending crypto legislation could strain the agency’s capacity, the CFTC inspector general said.
- Agency staffing fell about 21.5% from fiscal 2024 to 2025.
- Regulators may limit crypto prediction markets to existing derivatives frameworks, Decrypt was told.
Lawmakers are weighing whether to hand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission a sweeping new role in overseeing crypto markets at a time when the agency is smaller, thinner, and already under internal strain.
In a report on Tuesday, the Office of Inspector General identified digital asset regulation as a top management and performance risk for fiscal year 2026, citing pending legislation that could dramatically expand the CFTC’s responsibilities.
Expanding the CFTC’s authority would require the agency to hire more staff, build technical expertise, and develop new data systems as its mandate grows more complex, the report adds.
The warning lands as the agency’s workforce has contracted sharply.
Staffing fell from about 708 full-time employees at the end of fiscal year 2024 to roughly 556 a year later, a reduction of about 21.5%, the office said.
“The CFTC is the most institutionally aligned regulator for crypto derivatives and prediction markets, but its mandate and resourcing were not designed for always-on, decentralized spot markets,” Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at quantitative trading firm Kronos Research, told Decrypt.
Such conditions would require new approaches to market surveillance, enforcement, and data collection beyond those used in traditional derivatives oversight.
“Meaningful oversight will require targeted statutory expansion and a hybrid framework, not a simple extension of existing commodities law,” Liu said.
Last week, momentum around the CLARITY Act remained uneven, opening uncertainty over how far Congress is prepared to go in reshaping digital asset oversight.
The bill seeks to provide statutory clarity on the regulation of various cryptocurrencies and market participants. Specifically, it aims to provide clearer regulatory boundaries between the CFTC and SEC, with the former taking charge of the crypto spot market. It also seeks to provide clearer classification and registration requirements.
Yet negotiations over the bipartisan crypto market structure bill stalled after last-minute changes following pushback from Coinbase and renewed disagreements in the Senate over jurisdictional lines and the scope of enforcement.
Prediction markets further complicate the scope of the CFTC’s role as they could turn real-world events into tradable contracts, extending how a “commodity” market is defined.
“On-chain prediction markets will likely survive through compliance-aware architectures that allow selective transparency, enabling regulators to verify legality and market integrity without exposing all user activity,” Rob Viglione, CEO of Horizen Labs, told Decrypt.
Because many of these markets run on-chain, operate globally, and cover geopolitical events, they raise legal and institutional questions the agency has not traditionally confronted.
Still, Viglione said the regulatory model that eventually works in practice “will balance privacy with provable compliance, not blanket bans or full surveillance,” he added.
Decrypt has reached out to the CFTC for comment.