Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform that allows anyone to create a market about essentially any question, has rapidly gained recognition in the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Now, users are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into bets on the outcomes of a variety of political contests and questions.
One of Polymarket's draws is its simplicity: users bet on the outcome of a specified “event” by buying shares, which are priced between $0.01 and $1.00 and correlate to the odds of an outcome taking place, according to that specific market. Outcomes with higher share prices are seen by market participants as more likely to happen.
When the event is completed, the share price of the winning outcome goes to $1.00 and some of the participants cash out.
The bombshell announcement by President Biden that he will not seek reelection this fall prompted a record-setting 5,900 active daily users on Polymarket.
Are you looking to win money by accurately predicting what happens next—or to get a sense of where public sentiment lies? Here is a snapshot of the most popular political contests Polymarket users are betting on.
Presidential Election Winner 2024
Naturally, the hottest betting pool in the Polymarket’s political realm right now is the 2024 contest for the presidency. Over $450 million has been wagered so far, with the market giving Donald Trump a 57% chance of victory, followed by Kamala Harris at 40%. Michelle Obama (1%) comes in a distant third. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Hillary Clinton, and a host of other official and unofficial candidates have less than a percent.
Given that U.S. elections have a history of being contested, the creators of this particular market specify that it will be resolved when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC call the race for the same candidate—or, failing that, based on who is inaugurated in January 2025.
Democratic Nominee 2024
Following President Biden’s withdrawal from the race, interest surged in a Polymarket contest between potential Democratic Party nominees for the presidency this fall. Having received the endorsement of Biden, Kamala Harris leads this $295-million market at 97%. Once again, Michelle Obama is hanging on with odds of 1%.
The resolution for this particular market will be a “consensus of official Democratic Party sources,” which may happen soon, with Democratic National Convention delegates set to begin voting virtually on Thursday.
Presidential Election Popular Vote Winner 2024
More than $60 million currently rides on the outcome of the presidential election popular vote in this notable Polymarket pool. Given the electoral college system in the U.S., the winner of this contest may be different from the winner of the presidency.
While Donald Trump has the best odds of winning the presidential betting pool listed above, here his position is swapped almost exactly with Kamala Harris. Harris leads in this case with 60%, while Trump follows at 38%, with Michelle Obama again coming in third at 1%.
Interestingly, Kanye West currently enjoys a total bet of $3.8 million, ahead of politicians including Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Chris Christie.
Democratic VP Nominee
As it seems that Kamala Harris has effectivey won the Democratic Party nomination for the presidency, politicians and prediction markets alike are abuzz debating who the candidate for vice president may be. This has been among the most volatile of the top political betting pools currently on Polymarket.
In the lead of this $67-million pool for now is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at 76%, far and away the preferred pick. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear follows with 9%, followed by Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (7%), Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (5%), and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (2%).
Electoral College Margin of Victory in Presidential Election
Polymarket users have bet a collective $11 million on whether the Republicans or the Democrats will end up with the greatest share of electoral votes, and by how much. Candidates need at least 270 of the 538 possible electoral votes to win the presidency.
The top odds in this pool are for a strong win for the GOP. A scenario in which Republicans end up with between 65 and 104 more votes than Democrats has the highest odds at 16%, followed by a GOP margin of between 35 and 64 votes at 11%.
The most likely outcomes in the case of a victory by the Democrats, per this pool, are a margin of between 65 and 104 votes over the Republicans at 12%, or a razor-thin margin of no more than four votes ahead of the GOP at 8%.
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.