In brief
- Experts report a sharp rise in bearish Ethereum options activity, indicating trader caution about a potential price drop.
- This pessimism conflicts with massive institutional investment flowing into new spot Ethereum ETFs.
- The market is divided between short-term hedging strategies and long-term bullish accumulation.
Experts highlight a stark divergence between Ethereum’s bearish options activity and bullish institutional inflows.
The second-largest crypto by market capitalization has seen perpetual open interest decline by 2% from $24.6 billion to $24.1 billion since September 1, according to Coinanlyze. Bitcoin’s bullish outlook in the same period, however, is bullish, accompanied by growing open interest.
Ethereum’s bearish positioning is evident in Deribit’s data, which shows “a large increase in open interest of puts since the end of August,” Andrew Melville, head of research at crypto derivatives analytics platform Block Scholes, told Decrypt.
This rush to buy protection is noticeably changing the market and has caused the price of bearish bets to become more expensive than bullish ones, Melville explained. This trend, which started with Bitcoin, has now extended to Ethereum, indicating that Ethereum investors are becoming increasingly cautious.
Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, told Decrypt the bearish hedging is concentrated on specific price targets and timeframes.
“For ETH on the September 12 expiry, we see almost 10% of volume in the last 48 hours on the $3600, $3800 puts as traders brace for a sharp pullback,” he said.
Looking further out, Dawson observed a put volume clustering around the $4,000 and $5,000 strikes for the Sept. 26 expiry, indicating an expectation for a more moderate correction by month's end.
“Broadly, Ethereum posturing is bearish and signalling for a mild correction by the end of the month,” Dawson said, a stance he contrasts with a moderately bullish outlook for Bitcoin, according to Decrypt’s previous report.
Ethereum netflow declined to 183 ETH after witnessing an inflow of 348,236 ETH on August 25th, per Dune data. The slump indicates that investors have unstaked their assets as Ethereum retreated from its August 24 new all-time high of $4,955, signaling potential profit-taking activity coinciding with Ethereum's 12% drop since then.
The second-largest cryptocurrency is currently trading at $4,368, according to CoinGecko data.
Comparing the defensive positioning in options markets and unstaking spree to the bullish ETF inflows highlights a growing divide.
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows for Ethereum display confidence, with August flows hitting $3.87 billion and an additional $1.08 billion arriving in the last week alone, SoSoValue data shows.
In contrast, this performance dramatically outpaces Bitcoin ETFs, which saw net outflows of $751.12 million for August despite a positive $440.71 million last week.