Meme Coin Launchpad Bonding Curve Volumes Drop Below $1B: Here's What It Means

The trenches are taking a hit with the rise of perpetual futures trading.

Solana meme coin launchpads have hit a six-month low for bonding curve trading volumes, dipping below $1 billion. Data expert Adam Tehc says this is because attention is elsewhere, specifically on perp futures, but seasoned meme coin traders aren’t too worried about it.

On Sunday, according to Dune data, Solana meme coin launchpads recorded $89.7 million in daily bonding curve trading volume amid a $796.2 million week. That’s the lowest for a single day in three-months and the lowest for a week in over six-months, according to a Tehc dashboard.

What is a bonding curve?

The bonding curve refers to meme coin trading before the token graduates from the launchpad; for Pump.fun this takes place once a meme coin launched on the platform reaches a market cap of $66,000. As such, bonding curve trading volume acts as a measure of grassroots meme coin trading, rather than the buying and selling of established tokens like Fartcoin.

“Returns and attention are elsewhere right now,” Tehc told Decrypt. “Last week's perp decentralized exchange trend seems to have affected meme volumes particularly hard.”

This is reflected in the Dune data too, with perp trading volume skyrocketing to $466.8 billion last week—a 200% increase from $155.1 billion the week before. Meanwhile, Solana launchpad trading volume dropped 42% week-on-week from $1.36 billion to $796.2 million.

It comes as multi-chain perp decentralized exchange Aster caught the attention of traders with its mouthwatering 1001x leverage option and vocal backing from Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao. As a result, Aster’s token soared 2,000% in its first seven days as traders pipped it to rival the popular perp exchange Hyperliquid.

Despite its recent surge, however, users of prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt's parent company DASTAN, remain cautious on Aster's prospects, placing just a 33% chance on it reaching $4 before November.

Degens drawn to perps

Perpetual futures allow traders to speculate on whether an asset’s price will go up or down—via what is called a short or long—without needing to own the underlying asset. On top of this, perp decentralized exchanges have become well-known for their heavy levels of leverage, which appears to have attracted degen meme coin traders.

“Traders are going back to perps because it allows them to place higher leverage bets,” Pump.fun livestreamer and trader Ediz told Decrypt. “Leverage allows you to trade with your $1,000 like it's worth $10,000 or $100,000. The risk is higher because of liquidation but degenerates do not care.”

Pseudonymous trader 0xWinged told Decrypt that many meme coin traders are sidelined from the Aster trade and are patiently waiting for volume to rotate back into the trenches. 0xWinged said that they “don’t think it matters” that volume is down, as meme coins are “cyclical” and traders will return to eventually.

Trench vets like 0xWinged believe this as they’ve seen the ebbs and flows of meme coins before. Six-months ago, for example, the trenches were in a dire state as meme coins attempted to recover from Solana’s more than 50% drop from its January all-time high.

“Memes took a big hit, we've since recovered a bit,” Tehc said, reflecting on the state of the trenches in March. “To be back there we'd need to see a sustained volume drop over several weeks, traders are just gambling elsewhere.”

That said, Ediz believes the trenches are fatigued after a long-summer of meme coin trading.

“The trenches are tired,” he told Decrypt. “People barely hold coins past a 2x anymore because of PTSD and trauma. The trenches are currently way too extractive, and there are way too many people on farming, bundling, multi-walleting, etc. The trenches have gotten greedy and the average retail traders are tired of it.”

While the vibes are down, meme coin degens haven’t lost all hope. On Myriad, predictors remain cautiously optimistic about PUMP's prospects, placing a 54% chance on the token pumping to $3 billion rather than dropping to $1 billion—suggesting an underlying faith in its ecosystem.

As 0xWinged said, there are periods where meme coin volumes cool off, as traders look elsewhere for returns, and cleanse their pallets for degeneracy.

“I think volumes will return,” Tech said. "It will come back, I'm sure," 0xWinged added. "I need the trenches back."